
\begin{figure}[H]
\centering
\caption{Subjective vs. Observed Application Risk}
\label{figRisks}
%[1,1]
 \makebox[\linewidth][c]{%
	\begin{subfigure}[t]{\sizeSubfig}
		\centering
		\caption{\centering Distributions of Placement Chances}
		%\label{ }
		\includegraphics[width=\widthPng]{figuresCL/survey2020/histNoPlacedVsReal_all.png}
	\end{subfigure}
%[1,2]
	\begin{subfigure}[t]{\sizeSubfig}
		\centering
		\caption{\centering Optimism}
		%\label{ }
		\includegraphics[width=\widthPng]{figuresCL/survey2020/histOptimism_all.png}
	\end{subfigure}
	}
	\vspace{.01in}

%[2,1]
 \makebox[\linewidth][c]{%
	\begin{subfigure}[t]{\sizeSubfigWide}
		\centering
		\caption{\centering Subjective and Predicted vs. True Placement Chances}
		%\label{ }
		\includegraphics[width=\widthPng]{figuresCL/survey2020/binsregDeclaredPredictedRealRisk_all.png}
	\end{subfigure}
	}
	% MOVED TO APPENDIX " Additional figures and tables":
%[2,2]
%	\begin{subfigure}[t]{0.450\textwidth}
%		\centering
%		\caption{Binscatter of predicted vs true risk}
5		%\label{ }
%		\includegraphics[scale=0.550]{figuresCL/survey2020/binsregPredictedRealRisk_all.png}
%	\end{subfigure}
%	\vspace{.5cm}

%[3,1]
%	\begin{subfigure}[t]{0.450\textwidth}
%		\centering
%		\caption{Binscatter of subjective-implicit vs subjective placement chances}
%		%\label{ }
%		\includegraphics[scale=0.550]{figuresCL/survey2020/binsregImplicitDeclared_all.png}
%	\end{subfigure}
\floatfoot{\footnotesize\textit{Notes.} Panel A: distribution of true placement chances and survey-reported subjective placement chances. Vertical lines display means of each distribution. Panel B: distribution of optimism, defined as difference between subjective and true placement chances. Panel C: mean subjective placement belief within bins defined by true placement probability. The bottom bin includes applicants with placement probability less than 1\%, and the top bin includes applicants with placement probability of 99\% or more. The middle eight groups split the remaining observations into equally-sized bins. Dashed line is linear fit. Shaded areas are IQRs for subjective beliefs and risk predictions (within survey sample). 45-degree line displayed for reference. Sample: survey completers.   }
\end{figure}
